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From the Rolls-Royce experimental archive: a quarter of a million communications from Rolls-Royce, 1906 to 1960's. Documents from the Sir Henry Royce Memorial Foundation (SHRMF).
Post-war projects and future engine production forecasts.

Identifier  ExFiles\Box 148\2\  scan0246
Date  18th September 1939
  
8. R-Rs{Sir Henry Royce's Secretary} Policy file
1260

To Hs.{Lord Ernest Hives - Chair} from Rm.{William Robotham - Chief Engineer}

Rm.{William Robotham - Chief Engineer}4/JH.18.9.39.

POST WAR PROJECTS FOR THE ROLLS-ROYCE
GROUP OF FACTORIES.

Up to the outbreak of hostilities, it was difficult to place a probable time limit on the cessation of re-armament. Now, however, that war has actually started, we suggest that it is unlikely that it will last more than four years, since it is doubtful if any of the participants can stand the economic strain involved for even this period of time.

In considering post war projects, therefore, we have probably at the most four years and possibly very much less, to prepare for a set of circumstances which we believe can at this moment be very clearly defined.

At the present time it is unnecessary to emphasise that the company have all their eggs very much in one basket.

It appears to us to be questionable whether, in view of the quantities of engines that will be available, the number of engine manufacturers and the impoverished state of the country, Rolls Royce can expect to average as many as 1,000 engines a year for the five years after hostilities have ceased. This quantity can at present be produced by the Derby factory alone. It should be possible to predict the numbers with fair accuracy, the above being only a guess.

The expansion of Civil aviation will of course be considerable but again will take time. It should be possible to plot a curve of the rate of increase of civil demand for engines since the last war and thereby obtain some indication as to what it is likely to be at the end of this war. We believe that the results, particularly having regard to the supremacy of the air cooled engine in the field at present, are likely to be exceedingly disappointing from this companies point of view for at least five years after the cessation of hostilities.

Briefly, therefore, the conclusions so far reached are as follows :-
  
  


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