From the Rolls-Royce experimental archive: a quarter of a million communications from Rolls-Royce, 1906 to 1960's. Documents from the Sir Henry Royce Memorial Foundation (SHRMF).
Article discussing the impact of longer car lifespans on automobile replacement sales, with a corresponding data chart.
| Identifier | ExFiles\Box 128\1\ scan0044 | |
| Date | 11th February 1928 | |
| Automotive Industries February 11, 1928 189 Longer Car Life—Will It Affect Replacement Sales? Owners apparently less willing to trade in automobiles now after one or two years of service. Market last year fell below expectations. Stable styles a factor. By John C. Gourlie [Handwritten notes:] 33,000,000 12,000,000 21,000,000 THE present highly competitive situation in which the automotive industry finds itself, the result of production capacity considerably in excess of immediate demand, has been attributed to many factors in recent years. Among those frequently mentioned has been the increasing life of cars, but it is questionable whether or not the full importance of this particular item has been altogether recognized. The error into which tire manufacturers fell after the introduction of the cord tire will be remembered. They continued to plan production based on a replacement market which in turn was calculated on the average life of a fabric tire, failing to see that the greatly increased life of the cord casing would temporarily at least retard the expansion of replacement business. Overproduction and losses were the consequence. Is there danger of an error on the part of automobile manufacturers similar in character though not in degree? Of course in automobiles there has been no such fundamental change as took place in tires with the production of cord casings. But if, as there seems good reason to believe, the useful life of the automobile has been advanced more than a little in the last few years, there is justification for revising many of the prevailing estimates of the replacement market for automobiles, and there may be reason to doubt the ability of the trade to merchandise profitably a record number of units this year. The methods for computing the average life of a motor car are more or less familiar to factory executives through their statistical departments, and figures of this sort are the basis for the accompanying chart. A gradual gain in motor vehicle life is shown, their main value being in revealing a trend which is worthy of consideration. What is more important, however, is that cars are apparently not being turned in for trade as early in their lives as was the case a few years back. Whether this will ultimately add considerably to the average life of a car is, in a sense, not the vital question. The fact is that while an almost unlimited number of used cars can be sold if the price is cut low enough, the market for new vehicles in any particular year largely rests upon the willingness of owners with comparatively up-to-date and useful cars to turn them in at a sacrifice to obtain brand new vehicles. The replacement market in 1927 did not come up to general expectations. Instead of amounting to well over 2,000,000 vehicles, as had been freely predicted, it fell some distance below this mark, according to recent preliminary estimates. To just what extent this was the cause or the effect of the smaller market for new cars last year as compared with the previous year is not subject to statistical demonstration, but an off-hand appraisal of the current practices and preferences of motor car owners will shed light on the question. A few years back it was customary for persons of means to turn in their cars every year for new ones, not primarily because of the mechanical advances of motor car construction in the interim, but because the paint job had deteriorated appreciably and because the new cars were much superior in style. It is, therefore, probably not only because the recent cars are more durable mechanically but also because the lacquer and the style wears better that there is not the same disposition to acquire new cars as frequently—if that is, indeed, the influence now bearing heavily upon the market. Even when the finish begins to show undesirable [Chart details:] Title: Trend of car life since 1913 Line 1: CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION FOR DOMESTIC SALES Line 2: CUMULATIVE SCRAPPED VEHICLES Data points on Line 1: 1927 - 7 YR., 1922 - 6 1/4 YR. Data points on Line 2: 1918 - 4 1/2 YR., 1913 - 5 1/4 YR. | ||